Final 2016 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Best Director
Adam McKay - The Big Short
Todd Haynes - Carol
Ridley Scott - The Martian
Alejandro G. Iñárritu - The Revanant
Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
Matt Damon - The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Carol
Brie Larson - Room
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale - The Big Short
Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Jacob Tremblay - Room

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara - Carol
Alicia Vikander - Ex Machina
Julie Walters - Brooklyn
Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep

Best Foreign Language Film
Labyrinth of Lies
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Best Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Spotlight

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Best Original Song
Concussion - "So Long"
Furious Seven - "See You Again"
The Hunting Ground - "Til It Happens to You"
I'll See You In My Dreams - "I'll See You In My Dreams"
Youth - "Simple Song #3"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mr. Holmes
The Revenant

Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Best Visual Effects
Ant-Man
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
Where to Invade Next
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

Best Animated Short
Carface
If I Was God...
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
World of Tomorrow

Best Live Action Short
Contrapelo
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Stutterer
Winter Light

Best Documentary Short
Chau, beyond the lines
50 Feet from Syria
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Starting Point
The Testimony

Oscar Predictions (11/30/15)

Best Picture
1. Spotlight
2. Joy
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Carol
6. The Danish Girl
7. Steve Jobs
8. Room
9. Youth

Best Director
1. Ridley Scott - The Martian
2. Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
3. David O. Russell - Joy
4. Alejandro G. Iñárritu - The Revenant
5. Todd Haynes - Carol

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
4. Michael Caine - Youth
5. Johnny Depp - Black Mass

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson - Room
2. Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
3. Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
4. Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
5. Rooney Mara - Carol

Best Supporting Actor
1. Michael Keaton - Spotlight
2. Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
3. Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
4. Harvey Keitel - Youth
5. Jacob Tremblay - Room

Best Supporting Actress
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
2. Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
3. Jane Fonda - Youth
4. Joan Allen - Room
5. Isabella Rossellini - Joy

Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Joy
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Inside Out
5. Ex Machina

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Martian
2. Room
3. Carol
4. Anomalisa
5. Steve Jobs

Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Good Dinosaur
4. The Peanuts Movie
5. Shaun the Sheep

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Labyrinth of Lies
4. The Club
5. Rams

Best Production Design
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Martian

Best Costume Design
1. Cinderella
2. The Danish Girl
3. Carol
4. Far from the Madding Crowd
5. Brooklyn

Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Hateful Eight
5. The Assassin

Best Film Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. Spotlight
4. Steve Jobs
5. Joy

Best Original Score
1. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
2. Carol
3. The Hateful Eight
4. The Danish Girl
5. Bridge of Spies

Best Original Song
1. Love and Mercy - "One Kind of Love"
2. Furious 7 - "See You Again"
3. The Hunting Ground - "Til It Happens to You"
4. Youth - "Simple Song #3"
5. Ricki and the Flash - "Cold One"

Best Makeup/Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Danish Girl
3. The Revenant

Best Sound Mixing
1. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. The Hateful Eight

Best Sound Editing
1. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Hateful Eight
5. The Good Dinosaur

Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Jurassic World
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Walk

Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Cartel Land
4. Where to Invade Next
5. Heart of a Dog

Final 2015 Oscar Predictions (UPDATED)

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Whiplash
Should Be Nominated: Foxcatcher

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu - Birdman
Could Win: Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Should Win: Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
Should Be Nominated: Damian Chazelle - Whiplash

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton - Birdman
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Should Be Nominated: Oscar Issac - A Most Violent Year

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Juliane Moore - Still Alice
Could Win: No one
Should Win: Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night
Should Be Nominated: Jenny Slate - Obvious Child

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Could Win: Edward Norton - Birdman (but not really)
Should Win: Edward Norton - Birdman
Should Be Nominated: James McAvoy - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Could Win: Emma Stone - Birdman (but not really)
Should Win: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Should Be Nominated: Melissa McCarthy - St. Vincent

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Foxcatcher
Should Be Nominated: Calvary

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Whiplash
Should Be Nominated: Gone Girl

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Should Win: The Lego Movie The Boxtrolls
Should Be Nominated: The Lego Movie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Interstellar
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Be Nominated: Foxcatcher

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Be Nominated: Pride

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Mr. Turner
Should Win: Birdman
Should Be Nominated: Interstellar

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Whiplash
Could Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Whiplash
Should Be Nominated: Edge of Tomorrow

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: The Theory of Everything
Should Win: Interstellar
Should Be Nominated: Under the Skin

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: "Glory" - Selma
Could Win: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" - Glen Campbell...I'll Be Me
Should Win: "Glory" - Selma
Should Be Nominated: "Split the Difference" - Boyhood

BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should Be Nominated: Snowpiercer

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Whiplash
Could Win: American Sniper
Should Win: Whiplash
Should Be Nominated: Foxcatcher

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Birdman
Should Win: Interstellar
Should Be Nominated: Godzilla

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Interstellar
Should Be Nominated: Transformers: Age of Extinction

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Ida
Could Win: Wild Tales

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Citizenfour
Could Win: Virunga (but not really)
Should Win: Finding Vivian Maier
Should Be Nominated: The Internet's Own Boy

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Feast
Could Win: The Dam Keeper
Should Win: The Bigger Picture

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: The Phone Call
Could Win: Aya
Should Win: Butter Lamp

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Joanna
Could Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

2015 Personal Film Awards

**winner**

Best Picture
Calvary
**Foxcatcher**
Interstellar
A Most Violent Year
Whiplash

Best Director
Damian Chazelle - Whiplash
Ava DuVernay - Selma
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
**Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher**
Christopher Nolan - Interstellar

Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Tom Hardy - Locke
**Oscar Isaac - A Most Violent Year**
Jack O'Connell - Starred Up
David Oyelowo - Selma

Best Actress
**Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night**
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Jenny Slate - Obvious Child
Reese Witherspoon - Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
**Edward Norton - Birdman**
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress
**Patricia Arquette - Boyhood**
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year
Kim Dickens - Gone Girl
Melissa McCarthy - St. Vincent
Emma Stone - Birdman

Best Original Screenplay
**Calvary**
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Locke
Love is Strange

Best Adapted Screenplay
Edge of Tomorrow
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
**Obvious Child**
Whiplash

Best Animated Feature
The Boxtrolls
**The Lego Movie**
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Production Design
Foxcatcher
**The Grand Budapest Hotel**
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Snowpiercer

Best Costume Design
Get on Up
**The Grand Budapest Hotel**
Inherent Vice
Pride
Yves Saint Laurent

Best Cinematography
Birdman
Inherent Vie
**Interstellar**
A Most Violent Year
Selma

Best Film Editing
Birdman
Boyhood
Edge of Tomorrow
Interstellar
**Whiplash**

Best Original Score
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
**Interstellar**
Under the Skin
Yves Saint Laurent

Best Original Song
"The Boxtrolls Song" - The Boxtrolls
**"Split the Difference" - Boyhood**
"No Fate Awaits Me" - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
"Everything is Awesome" - The Lego Movie
"Glory" - Selma

Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
Mr. Turner
**Snowpiercer**

Best Sound Design
Foxcatcher
Godzilla
Interstellar
Transformers: Age of Extinction
**Whiplash**

Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Edge of Tomorrow
Guardians of the Galaxy
**Interstellar**
Transformers: Age of Extinction

Best Documentary Feature
The Case Against 8
Citizenfour
**Finding Vivian Maier**
The Internet's Own Boy
Life Itself

Final 2015 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu - Birdman
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game

Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

Best Actress
Jennifer Aniston - Cake
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Edward Norton - Birdman
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Rene Russo - Nightcrawler
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Emma Stone - Birdman

Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Nightcrawler

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Best Foreign Language Film
Force Majuere
Ida
Leviathan
Timbuktu
Wild Tales

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Selma

Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken

Best Film Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Best Original Score
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Homesman
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything

Best Original Song
Begin Again - "Lost Stars"
Boyhood - "Split the Difference"
Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me - "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
The Lego Movie - "Everything is Awesome"
Selma - "Glory"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything

Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Transformers: Age of Extinction

Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Godzilla
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Transformers: Age of Extinction

Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Best Documentary Feature
The Case Against 8
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Life Itself
The Overnighters

Oscar Predictions (11/30/14)

Best Picture
1. Gone Girl
2. Selma
3. Boyhood
4. The Imitation Game
5. Unbroken
6. Birdman
7. Whiplash
8. The Theory of Everything
9. Foxcatcher

Best Director
1. David Fincher - Gone Girl
2. Ava DuVernay - Selma
3. Richard Linklater - Boyhood
4. Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
5. Alejandro Gonzeález Iñárritu - Birdman

Best Actor
1. Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
2. David Oyelowo - Selma
3. Michael Keaton - Birdman
4. Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
5. Jack O'Connell - Unbroken

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore - Still Alice
2. Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
3. Reese Witherspoon - Wild
4. Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
5. Amy Adams - Big Eyes

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
2. Edward Norton - Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
5. Tom Wilkinson - Selma

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
2. Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year
3. Emma Stone - Birdman
4. Carmen Ejogo - Selma
5. Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game

Best Original Screenplay
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Selma
4. Whiplash
5. Mr. Turner

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. Unbroken
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Inherent Vice

Best Animated Feature
1. The LEGO Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Big Hero 6
4. The Boxtrolls
5. The Song of the Sea

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Mommy
2. Ida
3. Wild Tales
4. Leviathan
5. Force Majeure

Best Production Design
1. Into the Woods
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Mr. Turner
4. Interstellar
5. The Imitation Game

Best Costume Design
1. Into the Woods
2. Exodus: Gods and Kings
3. Mr. Turner
4. Selma
5. Big Eyes

Best Cinematography
1. Unbroken
2. Birdman
3. Mr. Turner
4. Interstellar
5. Selma

Best Film Editing
1. Gone Girl
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. Unbroken
5. Boyhood

Best Original Score
1. Unbroken
2. The Theory of Everything
3. Interstellar
4. The Imitation Game
5. Gone Girl

Best Original Song
1. Boyhood - "Split the Difference"
2. Begin Again - "Lost Stars"
3. The LEGO Movie - "Everything is Awesome"
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - "The Last Goodbye"
5. Noah - "Mercy Is"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Unbroken
2. Foxcatcher
3. Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Sound Mixing
1. Interstellar
2. Into the Woods
3. Unbroken
4. Transformers: Age of Extinction
5. Get on Up

Best Sound Editing
1. Interstellar
2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
3. American Sniper
4. Transformers: Age of Extinction
5. Unbroken

Best Visual Effects
1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Exodus: Gods and Kings
4. Transformers: Age of Extinction
5. The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies

Best Documentary Feature
1. Citizenfour
2. Life Itself
3. Keep on Keepin' On
4. Red Army
5. The Case Against 8

Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Gravity
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón - Gravity
Could Win: Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Joel and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Mattthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Should Have Been Nominated: Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Could Win: Amy Adams - American Hustle
Should Win: Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Should Have Been Nominated: Brie Larson - Short Term 12

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Should Win: Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Sam Rockwell - The Way Way Back

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Her
Could Win: American Hustle
Should Win: Blue Jasmine
Should Have Been Nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Philomena
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Short Term 12

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Frozen
Could Win: The Wind Rises
Should Win: Frozen
Should Have Been Nominated: Monsters University

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Have Been Nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: American Hustle
Could Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated: Blue Jasmine

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Nebraska
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Spring Breakers

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Captain Phillips
Could Win: Gravity
Should Win: Captain Phillips
Should Have Been Nominated: Stories We Tell

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Philomena
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Only God Forgives

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: "Let It Go" - Frozen
Could Win: "Happy" - Despicable Me 2
Should Win: "Let It Go" - Frozen
Should Have Been Nominated: "I See Fire" - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: The Lone Ranger
Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Should Have Been Nominated: Only God Forgives

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Lone Survivor
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Upstream Color

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Lone Survivor
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Oblivion

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (if Hell freezes)
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Nominated: Pacific Rim

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Could Win: The Hunt

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom
Could Win: The Square
Should Win: The Square
Should Have Been Nominated: Stories We Tell

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Get a Horse!
Could Win: Mr. Hubolt
Should Win: Room on the Broom

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Helium
Could Win: The Voorman Problem
Should Win: Helium

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: The Lady in Number 6
Could Win: Cavedigger

2014 Personal Film Awards

**winner**

Best Picture
Before Midnight
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Short Term 12
**12 Years a Slave**

Best Director
Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
Alfonso Cuarón - Gravity
Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
**Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave**

Best Actor
**Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street**
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Ethan Hawke - Before Midnight
Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix - Her

Best Actress
**Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine**
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
Adéle Exarchopoulos - Blue is the Warmest Color
Brie Larson - Short Term 12

Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
James Franco - Spring Breakers
Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
**Sam Rockwell - The Way Way Back**

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
**Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave**
Léa Seydoux - Blue is the Warmest Color
Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station
Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Original Screenplay
Blue Jasmine
Fruitvale Station
The Hunt
**Inside Llewyn Davis**
Kill Your Darlings

Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Philomena
Short Term 12
**12 Years a Slave**
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Production Design
Blue Jasmine
The Great Gatsby
**Inside Llewyn Davis**
Oz the Great and Powerful
12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Oz the Great and Powerful
**12 Years a Slave**

Best Cinematography
**Gravity**
Inside Llewyn Davis
Only God Forgives
Spring Breakers
12 Years a Slave

Best Film Editing
**Captain Phillips**
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Stories We Tell
12 Years a Slave

Best Original Score
Captain Phillips
**Gravity**
Only God Forgives
12 Years a Slave
Upstream Color

Best Original Song
"In Summer" - Frozen
"Let It Go" - Frozen
"A Little Party Never Killed Nobody" - The Great Gatsby
**"I See Fire" - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug**
"So You Know What It's Like" - Short Term 12

Best Makeup/Hairstyling
American Hustle
Lee Daniels' The Butler
**Only God Forgives**

Best Sound Design
All is Lost
**Gravity**
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Upstream Color

Best Visual Effects
Ender's Game
**Gravity**
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oblivion
Pacific Rim

Best Foreign Language Film
Blue is the Warmest Color
**The Hunt**
Stranger by the Lake

Best Documenatry Feature
Dirty Wars
**Stories We Tell**
20 Feet from Stardom

2014 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuarón - Gravity
Spike Jonze - Her
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave

Best Actor
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress
Amy Adams - American Hustle
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl - Rush
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb - Nebraska
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Notebook
Omar

Best Production Design
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Prisoners
12 Years a Slave

Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Original Score
The Book Theif
Gravity
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Best Original Song
"Amen" - All is Lost
"Let It Go" - Frozen
"The Moon Song" - Her
"You and I Ain't Nothin' No More" - Lee Daniels' The Butler
"Ordinary Love" - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
12 Years a Slave

Best Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush

Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Rim

Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Dirty Wars
The Square
Stories We Tell
20 Feet from Stardom

In Defense of Seth MacFarlane

It’s been two days since the Oscars happened, and a lot has been made about the winners, the fashion, and the ceremony. On that last note, there has been a lot of talk about Seth MacFarlane’s hosting duties. The reaction has been mixed, but that’s what we say about every single Oscar host. We complain about how mediocre they are and lament how thankless of a job it really is. But something felt different this time in reading the reactions from people. It affected me so much that I felt compelled to write it down. This has more to do with just the Oscars. This is about a culture that I feel like I don’t identify with anymore.

Everywhere I turn, I keep seeing signs that say how offensive MacFarlane was, particularly for the “We Saw Your Boobs” song and dance number. People claiming it’s sexist and making fun of rape. They are also going after a number of jokes about women in general, especially with the bits about women getting the “flu” to make themselves skinnier and how they can’t give anything up, in reference to Chastain’s character from Zero Dark Thirty. People are crazy upset! And it makes me want to scream at the top of my lungs, “Did the entire world just forget what a joke is!”

I know that MacFarlene’s sense of humor isn’t for everyone, and even I have on occasion strained through some of his comedy. Humor is subjective, and if you didn’t think something was funny, then you have every right to say that he was a terrible Oscar host. However, that is very different from the current chatter. These charges of misogyny are, in a word, ridiculous. If anything, in that song, MacFarlane was drawing attention to the fact that, in order to make it in Hollywood, women have to subject themselves to such a process, and felt like more satire than anything else. It’s offensive to point out that the entertainment industry objectifies women? So we can’t make any jokes about women at all? He made numerous black jokes too about Denzel Washington and Don Cheadle. Anybody upset over that? I’m sure. And don’t forget the gay joke he made, even if it was at his own expense.

I suppose what really frustrates me is that even though we joke how every year the Oscar host never gets good reviews, it generally comes from a place of not trying. Whether you agree with his comedy or not, MacFarlane was taking a chance to bring a slightly different edge to the ceremony. And people are tearing him to shreds for it. If that’s not your cup of tea, then fine. But then, when they try to do the classy thing, people complain about that. Even Billy Crystal, the safest Oscar host you can have got torn to pieces last year. What is it that you want? Do you just want them to not have a host? I’d be fine with that as well, but be honest, because right now, if you criticize everything the host does, no matter their material or execution, then it sounds like you just don’t want anybody doing this job.

Now, for the record, I did like Seth MacFarlane. I may be more defensive because I thought he did a good job at bringing the right amount of edgy humor while also paying homage to old school Hollywood ribbing, as well as showcasing the great song-and-dance man that he is. Some of his jokes fell flat, but during a three hour plus show, it’s not all going to be gold. So I liked him. I thought he was fun. Others disagreed, and that’s okay, but not for the reasons I’m hearing. These reasons come from a culture that is so steeped in political correctness that it no longer can register things like satire and irony. When we reach that point, I find it dangerous because the most important element about what we say no longer gets recognized: context. If we throw context out the window, then every intellectual argument goes with it. The excessive bashing of MacFarlane, for me, is a perfect example.

He’s already said he’s not returning to host again, and in all fairness, I think that’s good. I liked what he did with the show, but I’m uncertain I’d ever want to watch it again. He came in and did his thing, so now let’s move onto another person. That next person will get bad reviews too, but let’s hope it’s based on how they say it, just not the exact thing that was said. With that, I leave you with what will probably be most remembered from MacFarlane’s Oscar hosting, for the best and worst.

Oscars 2013: Post-Mortem

How ironic it is that the one year where I'm prepared to do my absolute worst in terms of predicting the Oscars turns out to be my best year yet. There were only three categories I missed, making a total of 21/24 correct guesses. Looking around the land, that's a better score than many of the so-called experts who make it their living to predict this stuff. That makes me feel good.

In terms of what I did miss, two of them were highly contested categories. Best Supporting Actor had arguments to be made in the favor of all the nominees, and I ended up betting that Silver Linings Playbook was going to be much more well received than it ended up being (it only won a single award). The signs were definitely in favor for Christoph Waltz, especially since he won everything he was nominated for. He has now been twice nominated and twice won, fitting that it happens the same night Sally Field loses that honor. As for the other category, Production Design, I knew Lincoln was a contender, but couldn't bring myself to predict it. Bravo to those that did.

As for the last category I got wrong, it has now proven to me that Best Live Action Short is my worst category. I'm never able to predict that one correctly.

Everyone seems to be ganging up on Seth MacFarlane for his hosting duties, but I rather liked him. I don't think I ever need to see him come back, but I found his sense of humor just edgy enough to warrant relevance in this day in age while also trying to pay homage to those in the room. But as he even joked about during his opening monologue, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't when it comes to hosting the Oscars. In truth, it doesn't matter what you do. They'll end up hating for it anyway.

So the book closes on another Oscar season. Argo defied its initial odds and won Best Picture without Affleck being nominated for Director. However, in his stead we got Ang Lee, a win that made me very happy. I didn't love Life of Pi, but I like it when such a strong directorial achievement is rewarded. Jennifer Lawrence also managed to fight off the Emmanuelle Riva surge of support and win Best Actress (I knew people were overestimating the support for Amour, as also evidenced by Tarantino's victory in Original Screenplay). Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway winning were expected. And there it is. Until next time.

And one more little bit of Oscar trivia: This is the first year since 2006 where the top six categories went to different movies. Best Picture: Argo, Best Director: Life of Pi, Best Actor: Lincoln, Best Actress: Silver Linings Playbook, Best Supporting Actor: Django Unchained, Best Supporting Actress: Les Misérables. Coincidentally, the last time this happened, Ang Lee also won Best Director for Brokeback Mountain.

Oscar Predictions: The Rest...

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Brave
Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph
-For the first time since this category was installed, we have no frontrunner. It seems to be a three-way race between Brave, Wreck-It Ralph and Frankenweenie. While it’s not Pixar’s best effort, the industry seems to be responding to Brave, and I think it will take it, with the other two, and more deserving winners, waiting to spoil.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Django Unchained
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
-Seems to me that it’s close between Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained and Michael Haneke’s Amour. The momentum seems to be in Tarantino’s favor, though I wouldn’t be surprised in an outcome in favor of Haneke, or even Mark Boal, who delivered a far better screenplay than the one he won the Oscar for three years ago.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Lincoln
-I am so tempted to predict Silver Linings Playbook to take this award, but if Argo is winning Best Picture, I can’t see it dipping below two wins. For that reason alone I’m sticking with the Best Picture frontrunner to carry coattails through this category. Personally, nothing came close to Tony Kushner’s writing achievement this year, but that’s just me.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: Anna Karenina
-It’s a close call between Anna Karenina and Les Misérables, with a potential Lincoln spoiler. In the end, though, I think the deserved winner will triumph.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: Anna Karenina
-While Production Design is slightly contested, I don’t think Anna Karenina is going to lose this one. Among this selection, I’d agree, though I was a little more impressed with Sharen Davis’s threads for Django Unchained.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Skyfall
-This category has shown favor to colorful visual spectacles, which gives a heavy tip in favor of Life of Pi. Despite Deakins being fairly overdue, I think this award is going to yet another 3D film. Out of the bunch, I would vote for ASC winner Skyfall, but for shame that the cinematographers branch did not nominated the marvelous and genius work of The Master.

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Argo
-Arguably the most important below-the-line category which generally matches up pretty well with Best Picture. For that, it seems like Argo is going to take it. It is the only award that I agree 100% with it winning.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Skyfall
-Life of Pi seems to have the right amount of elements to take the prize, and given the surprising Best Original Song nomination, it shows how much support the music has. Personally, I didn’t have a strong response to any of these scores, so I’d vote for Skyfall if only to reward Thomas Newman for a decent enough job. It’s a crime that the true winner, Cloud Atlas, couldn’t muster at least a nomination.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: “Skyfall” - Skyfall
Should Win: “Skyfall” - Skyfall
-Another one of the few categories where you can be confident in this prediction. As soon as it cleared that hump in getting nominated, it was sure to win. It’s a great song, but I do think “Who Did That To You” from Django Unchained (another Paul Epworth song, by the way) was slightly better.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Les Misérables
Should Win: The Hobbit
-I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if any of these nominees ended winning, but I think people are going to respond to Les Misérables adding layers of grime to their attractive stars. I’d personally opt for The Hobbit, but even for a movie I didn’t like that much, Holy Motors defined what should be celebrated within this category.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Les Misérables
Should Win: Skyfall
-Musicals tend to do very well in this category, and with such a push for the “live singing” narrative, I think this will triumph. Life of Pi or Skyfall is a threat to take this as well. I thought Zero Dark Thirty had the best sound design, but its absence in this category leads me to pick Skyfall’s mixing team.

BEST SOUND EDITING 
Will Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
-Going back and forth between Skfyall and Life of Pi, and when in doubt, go for the well respected action blockbuster. With Zero Dark Thirty nominated in this sound category, I would pick it for the winner.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Life of Pi
-The safest of safe bets this year. I can’t imagine any scenario where Life of Pi doesn’t deservedly take this.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Amour
-With its chief competition, The Intouchables, not nominated, Amour will more than likely take this. This category has been prickly in the past, but with the film reaching nominations in so many major categories, this has to be the least bit that it wins.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should Win: 5 Broken Cameras
-The entire Academy is voting for this award, instead of a small committee, and that would suggest the popular title will win. That gives the advantage to Searching for Sugar Man. Out of the nominees, 5 Broken Cameras is a miracle in documentary filmmaking, though I wish Samsara could have made the shortlist, which is not only the best documentary of the year, but one of the best films of the year period.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Paperman
Should Win: Adam and Dog
-For the very first time, the entire membership is allowed to vote on the live action and animated shorts. Before that switch, I’d have predicted the beautiful and deeply moving Adam and Dog to impress the animators, but the general Academy will probably opt for the popular studio presentation, which would be a fine choice as well.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Death of a Shadow
Should Win: Curfew
-It feels like it’s between Curfew and Death of a Shadow, and I have a hard time deciding whether the emotional arch of the former or the high production values of the latter will rule in the end. I’m going to go with Death of a Shadow, with the slightly better Curfew being just as likely a contender, but honestly just as worthy.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Inocente
-This story of a homeless, 15-year-old immigrant with dreams of artistry sounds like it has the right amount of buzz and emotion to go the distance. But unlike the other shorts, the voting block is still the much smaller size. Guess at your own risk.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director/Best Picture

Will Win: Ang Lee - Life of Pi

With the surprising omission of Ben Affleck, predicting a winner is extremely difficult, and probably the most difficult out of the bunch, because it's happening in a vacuum. Does Spielberg win as a default choice because Lincoln won’t win Best Picture? Do people appreciate the visual artistry of Life of Pi and recognize Ang Lee as the reason for any of that film’s success? Or do they make history by recognizing a non-DGA nominated director like David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, a movie they clearly liked? I’m going with Lee for now, but I am certainly not confident in that selection.

Should Win: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

There is a director missing from this list I wish I could choose. However, it isn’t Ben Affleck, it’s Kathryn Bigelow. To me, she is the bigger snub. But for some reason no one is rallying to her defense. Oh well. In her absence, I suppose I’d vote for Spielberg. However, even though he feels like a default choice, I would also argue that he does a great job with the film, getting out of the way of his own tendencies to let its best aspects, the performances and the writing, to do its job. He wouldn’t be my first choice for this prize, but he would still make a fine stand in.

Will Win: Argo

At one point, this race was completely wide open. There were any number of films that could have slid into the frontrunner position, and an absence of the guild awards left us without a rudder. Well, now the industry has spoken, and after steamrolling through PGA, SAG, DGA and WGA, Argo is in prime position to take this award. It is a consensus title, benefiting from a preferential ballot, and will go down as the first film since Driving Miss Daisy to win without that pesky Best Director nomination.

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

The film that was at the top of my top ten list is mercifully among the nominees this year, if only by the skin of its teeth. Despite the ridiculous controversy that plagued the film upon its initial release, it remains my favorite film of the year. Bigelow’s accomplishment is monumental in the way she portrays not only an interesting procedural but also touching on themes of a never-ending cycle of revenge that our culture, and country in particular, is willing to follow through on, no matter what the cost. It is one of the year’s most astounding achievements in filmmaking, and would have my vote as the year’s Best Picture.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress/Best Actor

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

I find it interesting how at one time, people were complaining about how weak they thought the Best Actress race was and now it has become highly contested. It started as a two-person battle between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence, and now Emmanuelle Riva has emerged as a potential spoiler. In the end, however, I still think it’s going to be Lawrence, who has SAG on her side as well as Harvey in her corner. She charms the circuit wherever she goes and as a previous nominee, she knows how to work it. I think in a close race, she’ll get it.

Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

How great it would be if Riva managed to actually pull off the upset. For me, there is absolutely no contest between her and Lawrence. What Riva does in Amour is incredibly heartbreaking and profound. It is a performance that touches you so deeply that even thinking about the challenges faced and how successful she is able to pull it off can move you to tears. Even as someone who didn’t fall in love with the film as much as others did, I cannot fault the brilliant job Riva does. In a just world, it would not even be a discussion.

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

This is probably one of the few categories where you can be confident in predicting the winner. The idea of Day-Lewis playing Lincoln sounded like perfect Oscar bait right there, and after seeing the performance, it is easy to reward him. He does a magnificent job at creating a character that feels so familiar even though no one knows how Lincoln spoke or acted. That is a commendable achievement that is going to be rewarded as Day-Lewis makes history by becoming the first to win three Best Actor trophies.

Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

It’s almost criminal to choose between Daniel Day-Lewis and Joaquin Phoenix. Both men deliver incredible performances through very different styles of acting. However, if I’m forced to choose one, I give the ever-so-slight advantage to Phoenix if only because he had the added challenge of creating an entirely original character without the benefit of research. Not to downplay Day-Lewis’s accomplishments, but Phoenix’s animalistic transformation is something to behold. It’s the best performance of his career, and I would say he deserves it. But Day-Lewis winning is a nice thought as well.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress/Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables

Ever since the trailer for Les Misérables dropped back near Thanksgiving, it seems like Anne Hathaway has had this award all but sewn up. Her passionate rendition of “I Dreamed a Dream” charmed people before they even saw her role in the complete context of the film. Since then, she’s been winning every major industry award under the sun. There’s whispers of a backlash forming due to her winning streak, and that would benefit an industry veteran like Sally Field. But I don’t think it’s enough to stop the Hathaway steamroller.

Should Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables

While I really did not like Les Mis, the one element I can praise are the performances, and Hathaway is most definitely a standout. Her time on screen is brief, but she leaves an unforgettable mark on the entire movie. You miss her dearly when her character departs, and she makes the most out of the time she is there. You can’t walk out of this film, whether love it or hate it, and not think about her performance. It is the most memorable character out of the bunch, and I would be glad to see her win.

Will Win: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook

This is one of the most open ended category at the Oscars. I can conceivably see any one of these nominees winning, all previous winners at that. I’m calling it for De Niro if only because Silver Linings Playbook is still a well liked film by the Academy, and he is campaigning HARD for it. Last year, when Meryl Streep asked for another award, she got it. I think it’ll happen again, but don’t count out SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones in a Best Picture favorite or Christoph Waltz after surprising triumphs at the Golden Globes and BAFTA, and has won every major award he has been nominated for. Predict at your own risk.

Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

I’m a bit torn in this category because while Philip Seymour Hoffman arguably gives the best performance out of this bunch, he clearly is a co-lead being masqueraded in supporting. For me, the truest best “supporting” actor is Tommy Lee Jones for a charming, funny and endearing turn in Lincoln. So do I choose the best performance or the best supporting actor? Even with playing victim to category fraud, I think you should still vote based on performance, and Hoffman is fantastic in a deeply complicated role. He far and away outshines the others.

2012 Blog Awards

**winner**

Best Picture
Cloud Atlas
Lincoln
The Master
Samsara
**Zero Dark Thirty**

Best Director
Ben Affleck - Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
**Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty**
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski - Cloud Atlas

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
**Joaquin Phoenix - The Master**
Matthis Schoenaerts - Rust and Bone
Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
**Emmanuelle Riva - Amour**
Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Tom Hardy - Lawless
**Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln**
Scoot McNairy - Killing Them Softly
Ezra Miller - The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Master
Doona Bae - Cloud Atlas
Ann Dowd - Complaince
Sally Field - Lincoln
**Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables**

Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
**Zero Dark Thirty**

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Cloud Atlas
Killing Them Softly
**Lincoln**

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Secret World of Arrietty
**Wreck-It Ralph**

Best Production Design
**Anna Karenina**
Cloud Atlas
Django Unchained
Lincoln
The Master

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Argo
Cloud Atlas
**Django Unchained**
Lincoln

Best Cinematography
Beasts of the Southern Wild
**The Master**
Samsara
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Film Editing
**Argo**
Cloud Atlas
The Master
Samsara
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Score
Beasts of the Southern Wild
**Cloud Atlas**
The Dark Knight Rises
The Master
Samsara

Best Original Song
**"Who Did That To You" - Django Unchained**
"Who Were We" - Holy Motors
"Still Alive" - Paul Williams Still Alive
"Skyfall" - Skyfall
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" - Ted

Best Makeup
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
**Holy Motors**
Lincoln
Men in Black 3

Best Sound Design
The Grey
Prometheus
The Secret World of Arreitty
Skyfall
**Zero Dark Thirty**

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
**Life of Pi**
Prometheus

Best Documentary Feature
How to Survive a Plague
The Imposter
The Queen of Versailles
**Samsara**
Side by Side

Best Foreign Language Film
**Amour**
Out in the Dark
Rust and Bone

2013 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Ben Affleck - Argo
Tom Hooper - Les Misérables
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackaman - Les Misérables
Denzel Washington - Flight

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Plabyook
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Master
Ann Dowd - Compliance
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions

Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Looper
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
The Painting
ParaNorman
Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
The Intouchables
Kon-Tiki
No
A Royal Affair

Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Lincoln

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Lincoln

Best Cinematography
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Song
"Touch the Sky" - Brave
"Who Did That To You" - Django Unchained
"Suddenly" - Les Misérables
"Still Alive" - Paul Williams Still Alive
"Skyfall" - Skyfall

Best Makeup
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Lincoln

Best Sound Mixing
The Avengers
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Editing
The Avengers
Flight
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
John Carter
Life of Pi

Best Documentary Feature
Chasing Ice
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
Mea Maxima Culpa
Searching for Sugarman

Oscar 2011: Post-Mortem

There you have it. The expected outcome of the night pretty much happened. While it may not have completely dominated the night, The Artist still managed to walk away with five Oscars for the evening, nabbing awards for Best Picture, Director for Hazanavicius, Actor for Jean Dujardin, Costume Design and Score. I had actually predicted the film to win six Oscars, but thought it would take Film Editing and Original Screenplay as well instead of Costume Design. The other big winner of the night was Hugo, which tied with The Artist's five wins. However, all the tech prizes the film won were meant to be the consolation prize for not winning the bigger awards.

And then there is Best Actress, where Meryl Streep actually managed to triumph over the quite favorited Viola Davis, and that that depresses me. I like Streep quite a bit, and even in that film, but this award belonged to Davis. It meant more for Davis to win this award than it did for Streep, and with it being the only award of the night I was emotionally invested in, it came off as quite a disappointment. I don't want to take anything away from what Streep did, but there's always going to be another opportunity to reward her. This industry shackles women like Davis all the time, and even if you have to take an artificial honor in order to break free, it'd still be nice to have it. Oh well, if anything this will give people even more incentive to reward Davis next time, being more overdue than before. Also, we can drop this line about "Streep hasn't won an Oscar in 30 years" and give someone else a chance at bat.

Outside of that, there weren't any major surprises. I did a measly 15/24, but most of the stuff I didn't get right were generally runner-up selections for me. The only real surprise was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo winning Film Editing, which took away from some heavy Best Picture contenders and made it the second consecutive award to be won by the Baxter/Wall team for a David Fincher film. The movie becomes the first film to win the award as its single prize since Bullit in 1968. But when your Oscar ceremony has only one major surprise and an upset that is emotionally disappointing, it hasn't been a very good night.

Below are a list of the winners, and I might have one or two more things to say about the Best Actress outcome this year, so perhaps expect something of that nature. As for now, the gears are already turning for Oscars 2013, and I'll have as much enthusiasm for those as I do for them now.

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Best Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Costume Design: The Artist
Best Cinematography: Hugo
Best Film Editing: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Original Score: The Artist
Best Original Song: "Man or Muppet" - The Muppets
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: Hugo
Best Visual Effects: Hugo
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Documentary Feature: Undefeated
Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Live Action Short: The Shore
Best Documentary Short: Saving Face

Final Oscar Predictions: The Rest...

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Rango
Should Win: Rango
-With its chief competition, The Adventures of Tintin, not nominated, it should be no trouble at all for Rango to take this award, as it justly should for being the year’s best achievement in animation.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: A Separation
-I keep going back and forth between The Artist and Midnight in Paris for this award, not knowing if the Best Picture frontrunner or the writers’ darling will take it. I stick with the former as of now, doomed I feel to repeat the outcome of this category in 2009. Of the nominees, Iran’s A Separation should win the prize, even though it should really go to Andrew Haigh’s brilliant script for Weekend.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: Moneyball
-Both screenplay categories are close, with both Moneyball and The Descendants fighting pretty hard. I even think the possibility of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy pulling a surprising win isn’t unlikely. A string of lat minute, major precursor wins for The Descendants has me thinking support is not all gone for the film, even though it’s chief competition should get the prize.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo
-It’s looking like Hugo is getting shut out of the major categories, so it will be made up for on the glorious technical spectacle. There’s still a chance The Artist could maintain its dominance, or the Academy can be given the opportunity to reward the Harry Potter films, but I think the deserved frontrunner will win.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo
-A surprisingly difficult category to nail this year, filled with Best Picture favorites and specific flaunters of the style. I’m going with Hugo for the moment, but can’t shake the feeling that any one of them remain just as viable options. Among these nominees, Hugo should win, but the real victory belongs to the recently departed Eiko Ishioka and her glorious work on Immortals.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-No doubt that Emmanuel Lubezki should have an Oscar by now (notably for Children of Men), but even though he does great work on The Tree of Life, it still feels like he won’t get the prize (being overdue hasn’t helped Roger Deakins lately). It seems like the dazzling, colorful 3D world of Hugo is going to take it. Personally, I’d want to see Jeff Cronenweth rewarded for his textured and matured chilly lensing on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, one of the brightest spots in a very dark film.

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Moneyball
-The most important below-the-line award that matches Best Picture pretty consistently. On that logic, it feels like it’s going to The Artist, though reigning champ Thelma Schoonmaker could sneak in as well. Out of this batch, I’d go for the subtle and quiet work Moneyball, though the true winner for me is the cutting provided for Drive.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Hugo
-It’s rather difficult to think of The Artist and not come to the score that plays in every frame. Dominance should tip the scales in its favor, though I was much more moved by Howard Shore’s detailed, layered and warm notes.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: “Man or Muppet” - The Muppets
Should Win: N/A
-With a pathetic two songs nominated (and not even the best songs from either film), it’s pretty clear this is going to The Muppets. I myself found no worthy songs to be deserving of this title and didn’t even include it on my personal ballot. I wish they had done the same.

BEST MAKEUP
Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Should Win: The Iron Lady
-Most people are going with The Iron Lady to win this one, and I think that’s a more likely scenario. However, I just can’t shake this feeling that, at the last moment, they are going to throw Harry Potter a bone, particularly in a category where the two other contenders are critically panned films. Of the nominees, The Iron Lady should win, but I was thoroughly impressed with what was achieved on the little seen There Be Dragons.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-It’s a close race, I think, between Hugo and War Horse. While the war film normally takes it here, I think the more “respected” sound category will go to a Best Picture contender, giving Hugo an edge (also BAFTA winners almost always win at least one sound Oscar). The subtle, eerie work on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo deserves it, and the sonic team behind Drive deserved it even more.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: War Horse
Should Win: War Horse
-Like Sound Mixing, it’s also close between Hugo and War Horse, but this time I see it going to the latter. This time I think the bombastic effects deserve recognition.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
-I go back and forth between Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Hugo. The former should undoubtedly take it, but with no film ever winning this award with it being its sole nomination in twenty years, that leans heavily towards the Best Picture contender, as well as sentimental favorite Harry Potter. I’m going with the one who should win, but I admit I’m at a bit of a loss.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: A Separation
-The only film in this category I have seen is A Separation, and I think it would make a fine winner. Indeed, the buzz for the film seems quite palpable. However, this is a category notorious for its surprising upsets, and I cannot help but feel queasy at predicting the frontrunner, particularly with the Holocaust drama In Darkness and the sappy Monsieur Lazhar also in contention, but at this point, there just doesn’t seem to be anything else to go on.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Undefeated
Should Win: Hell and Back Again
-The only film in this category that I haven’t seen just happens to be the one I’m predicting, mainly because of it’s high value in emotion and the fact that it is a Weinstein acquisition. The film I was most moved by in this category was the war documentary Hell and Back Again, which could win. Honestly, your guess is as good as mine.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Should Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
-Picking the winner is always a tough job; guess at your own risk. Having been barred from seeing La Luna because Pixar intends to release it in front of Brave, I cannot speak to its quality, but between the other four, there’s absolutely no competition between Flying Books and the others. It makes me queasy that its main competition I haven’t seen is from Pixar, but the studio hasn’t done well in this category lately, so I’m sticking with the one I think should win.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Tuba Atlantic
Should Win: Raju
-Consensus seems to be forming around Tuba Atlantic, and with its balance of heavy subject matter with quirky sense of humor, it might just have enough to go the distance. None of these nominees I think are really outstanding, but Raju was the one I thought had the best acting and filmmaking behind it, even if the story felt a bit too ambitious for its constricted timeframe.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Saving Face
-Conventional wisdom says that emotion sways the vote in this category, and Saving Face, with its heartbreaking tale of women recovering from acid attacks in the Arab world, seems like the one to beat. I can’t say for sure though...the shorts are always tough.

There’s all my picks. Let’s see how right I am, and this is the one year where I actually hope I am. It would make things a lot less boring.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Will Win: The Artist

Look out, here comes Harvey Weinstein again. Only this time, we saw him coming. Right after blitzing us with The King’s Speech last year, he’s back again with another universally praised film. Like the former, the thing this movie has going for it is that while not everybody loves the movie, everyone likes it, and that builds consensus that other polarizing titles like Hugo, The Descendants, The Tree of Life and The Help can’t achieve. It’s delightfully airy, and nearly impossible to resist any of its charms. The Oscars as of late is about finding the movie that everyone can get behind, even if devoid of passion. This is that picture.

Should Win: Moneyball

Full disclosure: Moneyball is not the best film of the year. In fact, I think We Need to Talk About Kevin, Weekend, and Drive, my favorite film of the year, are all better. However, Moneyball is the only Best Picture nominee that was in my top ten films of the year, and the only one I thought good enough to be nominated for the big prize. Even though I say all of this as a disclaimer for my choice, I don’t want to take away how good I feel this movie really is. It’s a sports movie for a person who isn’t really into sports, and carefully tracks a complicated process and lays it out in an engaging way. I credit Bennett Miller with crafting an intimate storytelling detail from a script that was headlined by two ace writers. The performances, particularly from Brad Pitt, are all amazing, and it was one of the few films in which I walked out of the theater beaming at what I just saw. This is not the best film of the year, but of the choices I have, it is certainly the one that deserves the title the most.