Will Win: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
There’s very little wiggle room in this category. Portman has been out, front and center as the formidable frontrunner in this category. Nearly every Best Actress award under the sun has gone to her. You might look towards Annette Bening as a potential spoiler, and I do consider it a possibility that she could end up being the surprise winner. However, Bening’s lost too many opportunities to steal away the momentum from her main competitor, so the safe bet here is definitely Portman, and is looking to be the only win for her film.
Should Win: Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
This is a very good category, but of these nominees, I’d have to say that Williams just manages to take the cake for me. Her role in the film is very tricky, and doesn’t allow for many of the emotional benders that Gosling is afforded (who is also very good, by the way). She’s absolutely devastating in a very complex role, and she handles many layers very well. She was a bit of a surprise nominee, and that never translates to surprise winners. However, her performance is incredibly real and genuine, and in my book, she’s the victor.
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