It’s certainly clear now that the award season is heavily upon us. The critics groups and different awards bodies having been showering their praises for different films, or more specifically, one particular film. Today, the Chicago Film Critics Association announced their own nominees. Since I currently live very close to the city, and read many of its critics, I pay attention to these nominees closely every year. I also tend to give a commentary on the nominees, and try to predict the winners to see how well I know my Chicago critics. Sometimes it doesn’t happen often, but I’ll try it again.
Best Picture
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Winter’s Bone
Every once in a while these critics pick some interesting choices like The Departed and WALL-E, and were even the only critics group to award Crash the Best Picture prize. Most other times, they tend to follow the pact with the other groups. I’m predicting that trend to continue here. The Social Network has been tearing up the circuit so far, and I expect Chicagoans to deliver a win in its corner yet again. Maybe The King’s Speech or even Black Swan can upset, but I think it’s unlikely. As for the nominees themselves, it’s a pretty tame slate with no major complaints.
Predicted Winner: The Social Network
Possible Upset: The King’s Speech
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
David Fincher - The Social Network
Debra Granik - Winter’s Bone
Tom Hooper - The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Third consecutive year with a five-for-five matchup for Best Picture and Director. Granik is the big surprise here, one that I understand but might not totally agree with. Winter’s Bone is a well directed film, but I’d have others far ahead of her. Yet again, I’d go with a win for The Social Network, as Fincher has been popular with this crowd anyway. One of these days the Chicago love for Christopher Nolan will pay off, so I’ll name him an unlikely upset.
Predicted Winner: David Fincher - The Social Network
Possible Upset: Christopher Nolan - Inception
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King’s Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
An excellent lineup of nominees with a an extremely strong and competitive category. Last year, this group passed over Jeff Bridges, George Clooney and Colin Firth (who wasn’t even nominated) to award Jeremy Renner. Anyone of these guys could conceivably win, but I’ll call it for Firth who has the momentum. I’d love to call Franco as the upset, but I think if there is one, it will be Eisenberg who gains from his film’s momentum.
Predicted Winner: Colin Firth - The King’s Speech
Possible Upset: Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Best Actress
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter’s Bone
Lesley Manville - Another Year
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Another good crop of nominees, and Michelle Williams and Lesley Manville get some love after showing up sparse throughout most of the other awards groups. Conventional wisdom says Portman will take it, but I’ll go out on a limb and say that Bening will finally win an award here. She’s been without major award recognition for most of the year, and I think there might be a turn of events here. If Portman does take it, I won’t be surprised, but it’s just a hunch I have.
Predicted Winner: Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Possible Upset: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
John Hawkes - Winter’s Bone
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King’s Speech
John Hawkes is making a dent in the season so far, as his recent surprise SAG nomination speaks volumes to the support he now has. I have no major complaints since it’s actually a good performance from a good actor. Bale has a tremendous amount of momentum right now, and I suspect he will take it. Rush might be the one to take it as an upset (even though I’d pray for Garfield).
Predicted Winner: Christian Bale - The Fighter
Possible Upset: Geoffrey Rush - The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
A predictable slate of nominees that will probably be repeated at the Oscars. The category is a little weak this year, so anyone could potentially take it. Right now, I’d call it for Leo, but anyone of them could also be an upset. I’ll say Carter, but your guess is as good as mine.
Predicted Winner: Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Possible Upset: Helena Bonham Carter - The King’s Speech
Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
Four Lions
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Kids Are All Right
The Four Lions mention is the real surprise that I can guarantee won’t show up anywhere else. Apart from that, it’s another typical slate of nominees. I’ll say The King’s Speech, but again I thinking that Nolan love will pay off eventually in this city. The Kids Are All Right could end up taking it as well.
Predicted Winner: The King’s Speech
Possible Upset: Inception
Best Adapted Screenplay
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
The only slightly surprising mention is probably Rabbit Hole. One would take a big risk betting against Sorkin’s screenplay here. If you want to find some upset, I’d point to Toy Story 3, since animated films have won in the writing categories before. But really, expect The Social Network to pick up another award.
Predicted Winner: The Social Network
Possible Upset: Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful
The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo
I Am Love
Mother
A Prophet
Predicted Winner: A Prophet
Possible Upset: Biutiful
Best Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for “Superman”
Predicted Winner: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Possible Upset: Inside Job
Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Predicted Winner: Toy Story 3
Possible Upset: How to Train Your Dragon (if Hell freezes over)
Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Predicted Winner: True Grit
Possible Upset: Inception
Best Original Score
Black Swan
I Am Love
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
Predicted Winner: Inception
Possible Upset: The Social Network
Most Promising Performer
Armie Hammer - The Social Network
Katie Jarvis - Fish Tank
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter’s Bone
Tahar Rahim - A Prophet
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Predicted Winner: Jennifer Lawrence - Winter’s Bone
Possible Upset: Tahar Rahim - A Prophet
Most Promising Filmmaker
Banksy - Exit Through the Gift Shop
Derek Cianfrance - Blue Valentine
David Michod - Animal Kingdom
Aaron Schnider - Get Low
John Wells - The Company Men
Predicted Winner: Derek Cianfrance - Blue Valentine
Possible Upset: Aaron Schnider - Get Low
I’m not totally sure when the winners will be announced. I hope it’s soon, and I can’t wait to see.
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