Oscar 2011: Post-Mortem

There you have it. The expected outcome of the night pretty much happened. While it may not have completely dominated the night, The Artist still managed to walk away with five Oscars for the evening, nabbing awards for Best Picture, Director for Hazanavicius, Actor for Jean Dujardin, Costume Design and Score. I had actually predicted the film to win six Oscars, but thought it would take Film Editing and Original Screenplay as well instead of Costume Design. The other big winner of the night was Hugo, which tied with The Artist's five wins. However, all the tech prizes the film won were meant to be the consolation prize for not winning the bigger awards.

And then there is Best Actress, where Meryl Streep actually managed to triumph over the quite favorited Viola Davis, and that that depresses me. I like Streep quite a bit, and even in that film, but this award belonged to Davis. It meant more for Davis to win this award than it did for Streep, and with it being the only award of the night I was emotionally invested in, it came off as quite a disappointment. I don't want to take anything away from what Streep did, but there's always going to be another opportunity to reward her. This industry shackles women like Davis all the time, and even if you have to take an artificial honor in order to break free, it'd still be nice to have it. Oh well, if anything this will give people even more incentive to reward Davis next time, being more overdue than before. Also, we can drop this line about "Streep hasn't won an Oscar in 30 years" and give someone else a chance at bat.

Outside of that, there weren't any major surprises. I did a measly 15/24, but most of the stuff I didn't get right were generally runner-up selections for me. The only real surprise was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo winning Film Editing, which took away from some heavy Best Picture contenders and made it the second consecutive award to be won by the Baxter/Wall team for a David Fincher film. The movie becomes the first film to win the award as its single prize since Bullit in 1968. But when your Oscar ceremony has only one major surprise and an upset that is emotionally disappointing, it hasn't been a very good night.

Below are a list of the winners, and I might have one or two more things to say about the Best Actress outcome this year, so perhaps expect something of that nature. As for now, the gears are already turning for Oscars 2013, and I'll have as much enthusiasm for those as I do for them now.

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Best Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Costume Design: The Artist
Best Cinematography: Hugo
Best Film Editing: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Original Score: The Artist
Best Original Song: "Man or Muppet" - The Muppets
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: Hugo
Best Visual Effects: Hugo
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Documentary Feature: Undefeated
Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Live Action Short: The Shore
Best Documentary Short: Saving Face

Final Oscar Predictions: The Rest...

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Rango
Should Win: Rango
-With its chief competition, The Adventures of Tintin, not nominated, it should be no trouble at all for Rango to take this award, as it justly should for being the year’s best achievement in animation.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: A Separation
-I keep going back and forth between The Artist and Midnight in Paris for this award, not knowing if the Best Picture frontrunner or the writers’ darling will take it. I stick with the former as of now, doomed I feel to repeat the outcome of this category in 2009. Of the nominees, Iran’s A Separation should win the prize, even though it should really go to Andrew Haigh’s brilliant script for Weekend.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: Moneyball
-Both screenplay categories are close, with both Moneyball and The Descendants fighting pretty hard. I even think the possibility of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy pulling a surprising win isn’t unlikely. A string of lat minute, major precursor wins for The Descendants has me thinking support is not all gone for the film, even though it’s chief competition should get the prize.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo
-It’s looking like Hugo is getting shut out of the major categories, so it will be made up for on the glorious technical spectacle. There’s still a chance The Artist could maintain its dominance, or the Academy can be given the opportunity to reward the Harry Potter films, but I think the deserved frontrunner will win.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo
-A surprisingly difficult category to nail this year, filled with Best Picture favorites and specific flaunters of the style. I’m going with Hugo for the moment, but can’t shake the feeling that any one of them remain just as viable options. Among these nominees, Hugo should win, but the real victory belongs to the recently departed Eiko Ishioka and her glorious work on Immortals.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-No doubt that Emmanuel Lubezki should have an Oscar by now (notably for Children of Men), but even though he does great work on The Tree of Life, it still feels like he won’t get the prize (being overdue hasn’t helped Roger Deakins lately). It seems like the dazzling, colorful 3D world of Hugo is going to take it. Personally, I’d want to see Jeff Cronenweth rewarded for his textured and matured chilly lensing on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, one of the brightest spots in a very dark film.

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Moneyball
-The most important below-the-line award that matches Best Picture pretty consistently. On that logic, it feels like it’s going to The Artist, though reigning champ Thelma Schoonmaker could sneak in as well. Out of this batch, I’d go for the subtle and quiet work Moneyball, though the true winner for me is the cutting provided for Drive.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Hugo
-It’s rather difficult to think of The Artist and not come to the score that plays in every frame. Dominance should tip the scales in its favor, though I was much more moved by Howard Shore’s detailed, layered and warm notes.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: “Man or Muppet” - The Muppets
Should Win: N/A
-With a pathetic two songs nominated (and not even the best songs from either film), it’s pretty clear this is going to The Muppets. I myself found no worthy songs to be deserving of this title and didn’t even include it on my personal ballot. I wish they had done the same.

BEST MAKEUP
Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Should Win: The Iron Lady
-Most people are going with The Iron Lady to win this one, and I think that’s a more likely scenario. However, I just can’t shake this feeling that, at the last moment, they are going to throw Harry Potter a bone, particularly in a category where the two other contenders are critically panned films. Of the nominees, The Iron Lady should win, but I was thoroughly impressed with what was achieved on the little seen There Be Dragons.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-It’s a close race, I think, between Hugo and War Horse. While the war film normally takes it here, I think the more “respected” sound category will go to a Best Picture contender, giving Hugo an edge (also BAFTA winners almost always win at least one sound Oscar). The subtle, eerie work on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo deserves it, and the sonic team behind Drive deserved it even more.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: War Horse
Should Win: War Horse
-Like Sound Mixing, it’s also close between Hugo and War Horse, but this time I see it going to the latter. This time I think the bombastic effects deserve recognition.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
-I go back and forth between Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Hugo. The former should undoubtedly take it, but with no film ever winning this award with it being its sole nomination in twenty years, that leans heavily towards the Best Picture contender, as well as sentimental favorite Harry Potter. I’m going with the one who should win, but I admit I’m at a bit of a loss.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: A Separation
-The only film in this category I have seen is A Separation, and I think it would make a fine winner. Indeed, the buzz for the film seems quite palpable. However, this is a category notorious for its surprising upsets, and I cannot help but feel queasy at predicting the frontrunner, particularly with the Holocaust drama In Darkness and the sappy Monsieur Lazhar also in contention, but at this point, there just doesn’t seem to be anything else to go on.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Undefeated
Should Win: Hell and Back Again
-The only film in this category that I haven’t seen just happens to be the one I’m predicting, mainly because of it’s high value in emotion and the fact that it is a Weinstein acquisition. The film I was most moved by in this category was the war documentary Hell and Back Again, which could win. Honestly, your guess is as good as mine.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Should Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
-Picking the winner is always a tough job; guess at your own risk. Having been barred from seeing La Luna because Pixar intends to release it in front of Brave, I cannot speak to its quality, but between the other four, there’s absolutely no competition between Flying Books and the others. It makes me queasy that its main competition I haven’t seen is from Pixar, but the studio hasn’t done well in this category lately, so I’m sticking with the one I think should win.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Tuba Atlantic
Should Win: Raju
-Consensus seems to be forming around Tuba Atlantic, and with its balance of heavy subject matter with quirky sense of humor, it might just have enough to go the distance. None of these nominees I think are really outstanding, but Raju was the one I thought had the best acting and filmmaking behind it, even if the story felt a bit too ambitious for its constricted timeframe.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Saving Face
-Conventional wisdom says that emotion sways the vote in this category, and Saving Face, with its heartbreaking tale of women recovering from acid attacks in the Arab world, seems like the one to beat. I can’t say for sure though...the shorts are always tough.

There’s all my picks. Let’s see how right I am, and this is the one year where I actually hope I am. It would make things a lot less boring.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Will Win: The Artist

Look out, here comes Harvey Weinstein again. Only this time, we saw him coming. Right after blitzing us with The King’s Speech last year, he’s back again with another universally praised film. Like the former, the thing this movie has going for it is that while not everybody loves the movie, everyone likes it, and that builds consensus that other polarizing titles like Hugo, The Descendants, The Tree of Life and The Help can’t achieve. It’s delightfully airy, and nearly impossible to resist any of its charms. The Oscars as of late is about finding the movie that everyone can get behind, even if devoid of passion. This is that picture.

Should Win: Moneyball

Full disclosure: Moneyball is not the best film of the year. In fact, I think We Need to Talk About Kevin, Weekend, and Drive, my favorite film of the year, are all better. However, Moneyball is the only Best Picture nominee that was in my top ten films of the year, and the only one I thought good enough to be nominated for the big prize. Even though I say all of this as a disclaimer for my choice, I don’t want to take away how good I feel this movie really is. It’s a sports movie for a person who isn’t really into sports, and carefully tracks a complicated process and lays it out in an engaging way. I credit Bennett Miller with crafting an intimate storytelling detail from a script that was headlined by two ace writers. The performances, particularly from Brad Pitt, are all amazing, and it was one of the few films in which I walked out of the theater beaming at what I just saw. This is not the best film of the year, but of the choices I have, it is certainly the one that deserves the title the most.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

When a particular film is leading the race, it generally is a rule that the director gets in with the film as well. That rule is especially crystallized when that director has won the DGA Award, one of the industry’s best precursors for predicting the eventual Oscar winner in the respective category. With The Artist riding that wave of raves, and Hazanavicius winning the coveted prize, it seems quite clear that this award is going to him. Some people are predicting a split, with the thought being that vets like Scorsese or Malick can come in. It’s a possibility, but those same people also predicted a split last year between The King’s Speech and David Fincher, and look how that turned out. At the end of the day, go with the DGA winner.

Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

Last year, I was so blinded by the extreme discomfort of seeing anyone but Fincher win Best Director for The Social Network that I convinced myself that Tom Hooper couldn’t possibly have won. This year, I have no qualms with the frontrunner winning, mainly because none of the best directorial achievement of the year are nominated, including Nicolas Winding Refn’s marvelous work on Drive which should have won. What Hazanavicius is able to create with his film is a stunning nod to another era of cinema, and as a foreigner, his love letter feels all the more endearing with its smart and clever tricks. Scorsese would have this vote for me if he didn’t indulge in a painfully mediocre story for 90 minutes. You can attack The Artist for its simple story, but the artful and sincere direction cannot be questioned.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Will Win: Jean Dujardin - The Artist

It’s really funny how this category went from being rigid to completely fluid within a matter of days. For the longest time, George Clooney was the frontrunner for The Descendants, but there were always grumblings of a Dujardin upset. His SAG win proved momentum, but now even Brad Pitt or Gary Oldman (hey, let’s not forget Demian Bichir) could sneak in a surprise win. It’s all up in the air, but a major guild win signals to me that Dujardin is going to win, especially since it’s hard not to recognize the film without giving props to its charming leading man who has to carry the whole film solely on his expressive facial features. It’s a daunting task that I think he’ll be rewarded for.

Should Win: Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

This is a really weird category for me. It’s one of the few in which none of my personal selections, including Michael Fassbender who should have won for his haunting work in Shame, are nominated. However, all the people who are gave great performances in their films and I wouldn’t mind any of them winning. If forced to pick one, though, I’d give it to Oldman by a hair. That’s mainly because not only is he doing fine work in this film, but he’s also showing us how restrained he can be and still be mesmerizing to watch. Oldman has been an actor who has been quite theatrical in the past, and to watch him take such cold and calculated steps to unveil a character that is still engrossing is a fantastic job an actor can provide. I’ve admired Gary Oldman for a very long time, and making him an Oscar winner for this role would be a pleasant thought.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Will Win: Viola Davis - The Help

A lot of people are saying that this is a close race between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. While I agree that if anyone is going to win this other than Davis, it is going to be Streep, and it will be close, at this point, the charm of casting the vote for Viola Davis seems almost impossible to ignore. Not only does she give an acclaimed performance in one of the year’s most successful films, but she also managed to win the SAG Award over the favorited Streep, who also has been pulling hard for Davis to win herself. It’s a chance to make history, and for once, luck seems to be on her side this time.

Should Win: Viola Davis - The Help

If it were up to me, Davis would already have an Oscar for her brief yet commanding performance in Doubt. If it were up to me again, she’d have a second Oscar to go with it. One can’t quite encapsulate just how great and essential Davis is to The Help, providing the emotional center that guides all of us through some very tricky territory. It’s the way she’s so soft yet firm in every scene that holds such a tight grip that demands your attention and respect. Even though I admit that had Tilda Swinton been nominated for We Need to Talk About Kevin, my vote would be cast for her. However, with her absence, I have no trouble at all with Davis as the winner.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Two years ago, Plummer became an Oscar nominee for the first time at age 80, and despite them trying very hard for him to receive that Lifetime Achievement award given to so many veterans in this category, he failed to overtake the far superior Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds. This time, however, he’s ready to take it all, and his impressive winning streak so far more than suggests that he’ll end up winning. It is interesting to note Max von Sydow’s presence, who has nearly the same credentials as Plummer as well as being in a Best Picture nominee, and he could surprise as an upset. But I still think that’s too little, too late, and the evening will belong to Plummer.

Should Win: Nick Nolte - Warrior

While I really liked Plummer, and even wouldn’t necessarily mind seeing Kenneth Branagh win for My Week with Marilyn (based more on being a fan of the man, not necessarily the role), my personal vote would certainly be cast for Nolte. He’s in a predictable film and has a predictable character, but the way Nolte is able to pull back the layers of this man and make him such a complicated figure was inspiring to me. I totally understood every bit of his guilt and torment, but also saw the strength he could draw upon to get him through his days. He’s completely sympathetic, but you don’t feel he’s blameless either. Nolte sells the damaged nature of this character, and he is the film’s best asset, delivering a commanding and worthy performance.

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Octavia Spencer - The Help

It’s very interesting how this category has formed in the past couple of weeks. Before the major precursors, there wasn’t a real frontrunner, and when people were trying to pick a winner, most were going with Jessica Chastain for one of the many roles she had in 2011. However, once Spencer started to win pretty much every major award under the sun, it became quite clear that she was the one to beat. I have little reason to doubt that, as a recent BAFTA win all but secures that outcome. Perhaps Bernice Bejo can ride The Artist’s coattails, but I still see this as Spencer’s win.

Should Win: Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids

I want to clear something up first: do I really think McCarthy gave an Oscar worthy performance in Bridesmaids? Honestly, not really. However, she is the only nominee in this category that left a significant impression on her film, so much so that it’s impossible to think about the movie and not come back to her ballsy comedic turn. It is a slight performance, I will grant you, but it’s one that elevates the character very much by her own powers as a performer, and makes the movie she’s in light up every time. It’s hardly a vote I’d cast with strong conviction, but it is a case of me simply enjoying this performance more than most of the others.