Final Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Will Win: The Artist

Look out, here comes Harvey Weinstein again. Only this time, we saw him coming. Right after blitzing us with The King’s Speech last year, he’s back again with another universally praised film. Like the former, the thing this movie has going for it is that while not everybody loves the movie, everyone likes it, and that builds consensus that other polarizing titles like Hugo, The Descendants, The Tree of Life and The Help can’t achieve. It’s delightfully airy, and nearly impossible to resist any of its charms. The Oscars as of late is about finding the movie that everyone can get behind, even if devoid of passion. This is that picture.

Should Win: Moneyball

Full disclosure: Moneyball is not the best film of the year. In fact, I think We Need to Talk About Kevin, Weekend, and Drive, my favorite film of the year, are all better. However, Moneyball is the only Best Picture nominee that was in my top ten films of the year, and the only one I thought good enough to be nominated for the big prize. Even though I say all of this as a disclaimer for my choice, I don’t want to take away how good I feel this movie really is. It’s a sports movie for a person who isn’t really into sports, and carefully tracks a complicated process and lays it out in an engaging way. I credit Bennett Miller with crafting an intimate storytelling detail from a script that was headlined by two ace writers. The performances, particularly from Brad Pitt, are all amazing, and it was one of the few films in which I walked out of the theater beaming at what I just saw. This is not the best film of the year, but of the choices I have, it is certainly the one that deserves the title the most.