Final Oscar Predictions: The Rest...

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Rango
Should Win: Rango
-With its chief competition, The Adventures of Tintin, not nominated, it should be no trouble at all for Rango to take this award, as it justly should for being the year’s best achievement in animation.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: A Separation
-I keep going back and forth between The Artist and Midnight in Paris for this award, not knowing if the Best Picture frontrunner or the writers’ darling will take it. I stick with the former as of now, doomed I feel to repeat the outcome of this category in 2009. Of the nominees, Iran’s A Separation should win the prize, even though it should really go to Andrew Haigh’s brilliant script for Weekend.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: Moneyball
-Both screenplay categories are close, with both Moneyball and The Descendants fighting pretty hard. I even think the possibility of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy pulling a surprising win isn’t unlikely. A string of lat minute, major precursor wins for The Descendants has me thinking support is not all gone for the film, even though it’s chief competition should get the prize.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo
-It’s looking like Hugo is getting shut out of the major categories, so it will be made up for on the glorious technical spectacle. There’s still a chance The Artist could maintain its dominance, or the Academy can be given the opportunity to reward the Harry Potter films, but I think the deserved frontrunner will win.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo
-A surprisingly difficult category to nail this year, filled with Best Picture favorites and specific flaunters of the style. I’m going with Hugo for the moment, but can’t shake the feeling that any one of them remain just as viable options. Among these nominees, Hugo should win, but the real victory belongs to the recently departed Eiko Ishioka and her glorious work on Immortals.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-No doubt that Emmanuel Lubezki should have an Oscar by now (notably for Children of Men), but even though he does great work on The Tree of Life, it still feels like he won’t get the prize (being overdue hasn’t helped Roger Deakins lately). It seems like the dazzling, colorful 3D world of Hugo is going to take it. Personally, I’d want to see Jeff Cronenweth rewarded for his textured and matured chilly lensing on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, one of the brightest spots in a very dark film.

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Moneyball
-The most important below-the-line award that matches Best Picture pretty consistently. On that logic, it feels like it’s going to The Artist, though reigning champ Thelma Schoonmaker could sneak in as well. Out of this batch, I’d go for the subtle and quiet work Moneyball, though the true winner for me is the cutting provided for Drive.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Hugo
-It’s rather difficult to think of The Artist and not come to the score that plays in every frame. Dominance should tip the scales in its favor, though I was much more moved by Howard Shore’s detailed, layered and warm notes.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: “Man or Muppet” - The Muppets
Should Win: N/A
-With a pathetic two songs nominated (and not even the best songs from either film), it’s pretty clear this is going to The Muppets. I myself found no worthy songs to be deserving of this title and didn’t even include it on my personal ballot. I wish they had done the same.

BEST MAKEUP
Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Should Win: The Iron Lady
-Most people are going with The Iron Lady to win this one, and I think that’s a more likely scenario. However, I just can’t shake this feeling that, at the last moment, they are going to throw Harry Potter a bone, particularly in a category where the two other contenders are critically panned films. Of the nominees, The Iron Lady should win, but I was thoroughly impressed with what was achieved on the little seen There Be Dragons.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-It’s a close race, I think, between Hugo and War Horse. While the war film normally takes it here, I think the more “respected” sound category will go to a Best Picture contender, giving Hugo an edge (also BAFTA winners almost always win at least one sound Oscar). The subtle, eerie work on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo deserves it, and the sonic team behind Drive deserved it even more.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: War Horse
Should Win: War Horse
-Like Sound Mixing, it’s also close between Hugo and War Horse, but this time I see it going to the latter. This time I think the bombastic effects deserve recognition.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
-I go back and forth between Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Hugo. The former should undoubtedly take it, but with no film ever winning this award with it being its sole nomination in twenty years, that leans heavily towards the Best Picture contender, as well as sentimental favorite Harry Potter. I’m going with the one who should win, but I admit I’m at a bit of a loss.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: A Separation
-The only film in this category I have seen is A Separation, and I think it would make a fine winner. Indeed, the buzz for the film seems quite palpable. However, this is a category notorious for its surprising upsets, and I cannot help but feel queasy at predicting the frontrunner, particularly with the Holocaust drama In Darkness and the sappy Monsieur Lazhar also in contention, but at this point, there just doesn’t seem to be anything else to go on.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Undefeated
Should Win: Hell and Back Again
-The only film in this category that I haven’t seen just happens to be the one I’m predicting, mainly because of it’s high value in emotion and the fact that it is a Weinstein acquisition. The film I was most moved by in this category was the war documentary Hell and Back Again, which could win. Honestly, your guess is as good as mine.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Should Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
-Picking the winner is always a tough job; guess at your own risk. Having been barred from seeing La Luna because Pixar intends to release it in front of Brave, I cannot speak to its quality, but between the other four, there’s absolutely no competition between Flying Books and the others. It makes me queasy that its main competition I haven’t seen is from Pixar, but the studio hasn’t done well in this category lately, so I’m sticking with the one I think should win.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Tuba Atlantic
Should Win: Raju
-Consensus seems to be forming around Tuba Atlantic, and with its balance of heavy subject matter with quirky sense of humor, it might just have enough to go the distance. None of these nominees I think are really outstanding, but Raju was the one I thought had the best acting and filmmaking behind it, even if the story felt a bit too ambitious for its constricted timeframe.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Saving Face
-Conventional wisdom says that emotion sways the vote in this category, and Saving Face, with its heartbreaking tale of women recovering from acid attacks in the Arab world, seems like the one to beat. I can’t say for sure though...the shorts are always tough.

There’s all my picks. Let’s see how right I am, and this is the one year where I actually hope I am. It would make things a lot less boring.