Final Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

When a particular film is leading the race, it generally is a rule that the director gets in with the film as well. That rule is especially crystallized when that director has won the DGA Award, one of the industry’s best precursors for predicting the eventual Oscar winner in the respective category. With The Artist riding that wave of raves, and Hazanavicius winning the coveted prize, it seems quite clear that this award is going to him. Some people are predicting a split, with the thought being that vets like Scorsese or Malick can come in. It’s a possibility, but those same people also predicted a split last year between The King’s Speech and David Fincher, and look how that turned out. At the end of the day, go with the DGA winner.

Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

Last year, I was so blinded by the extreme discomfort of seeing anyone but Fincher win Best Director for The Social Network that I convinced myself that Tom Hooper couldn’t possibly have won. This year, I have no qualms with the frontrunner winning, mainly because none of the best directorial achievement of the year are nominated, including Nicolas Winding Refn’s marvelous work on Drive which should have won. What Hazanavicius is able to create with his film is a stunning nod to another era of cinema, and as a foreigner, his love letter feels all the more endearing with its smart and clever tricks. Scorsese would have this vote for me if he didn’t indulge in a painfully mediocre story for 90 minutes. You can attack The Artist for its simple story, but the artful and sincere direction cannot be questioned.