Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Two years ago, Plummer became an Oscar nominee for the first time at age 80, and despite them trying very hard for him to receive that Lifetime Achievement award given to so many veterans in this category, he failed to overtake the far superior Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds. This time, however, he’s ready to take it all, and his impressive winning streak so far more than suggests that he’ll end up winning. It is interesting to note Max von Sydow’s presence, who has nearly the same credentials as Plummer as well as being in a Best Picture nominee, and he could surprise as an upset. But I still think that’s too little, too late, and the evening will belong to Plummer.

Should Win: Nick Nolte - Warrior

While I really liked Plummer, and even wouldn’t necessarily mind seeing Kenneth Branagh win for My Week with Marilyn (based more on being a fan of the man, not necessarily the role), my personal vote would certainly be cast for Nolte. He’s in a predictable film and has a predictable character, but the way Nolte is able to pull back the layers of this man and make him such a complicated figure was inspiring to me. I totally understood every bit of his guilt and torment, but also saw the strength he could draw upon to get him through his days. He’s completely sympathetic, but you don’t feel he’s blameless either. Nolte sells the damaged nature of this character, and he is the film’s best asset, delivering a commanding and worthy performance.