Will Win: Ang Lee - Life of Pi
With the surprising omission of Ben Affleck, predicting a winner is extremely difficult, and probably the most difficult out of the bunch, because it's happening in a vacuum. Does Spielberg win as a default choice because Lincoln won’t win Best Picture? Do people appreciate the visual artistry of Life of Pi and recognize Ang Lee as the reason for any of that film’s success? Or do they make history by recognizing a non-DGA nominated director like David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, a movie they clearly liked? I’m going with Lee for now, but I am certainly not confident in that selection.
Should Win: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
There is a director missing from this list I wish I could choose. However, it isn’t Ben Affleck, it’s Kathryn Bigelow. To me, she is the bigger snub. But for some reason no one is rallying to her defense. Oh well. In her absence, I suppose I’d vote for Spielberg. However, even though he feels like a default choice, I would also argue that he does a great job with the film, getting out of the way of his own tendencies to let its best aspects, the performances and the writing, to do its job. He wouldn’t be my first choice for this prize, but he would still make a fine stand in.
Will Win: Argo
At one point, this race was completely wide open. There were any number of films that could have slid into the frontrunner position, and an absence of the guild awards left us without a rudder. Well, now the industry has spoken, and after steamrolling through PGA, SAG, DGA and WGA, Argo is in prime position to take this award. It is a consensus title, benefiting from a preferential ballot, and will go down as the first film since Driving Miss Daisy to win without that pesky Best Director nomination.
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
The film that was at the top of my top ten list is mercifully among the nominees this year, if only by the skin of its teeth. Despite the ridiculous controversy that plagued the film upon its initial release, it remains my favorite film of the year. Bigelow’s accomplishment is monumental in the way she portrays not only an interesting procedural but also touching on themes of a never-ending cycle of revenge that our culture, and country in particular, is willing to follow through on, no matter what the cost. It is one of the year’s most astounding achievements in filmmaking, and would have my vote as the year’s Best Picture.
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