Final Oscar Nominations Predictions: Best Picture

Best Picture (Predicted 10)

Black Swan

It’s a love-it-or-hate-it film, but there’s enough love to push it into the spotlight. A nomination is more than likely assured.

The Fighter

A rousing crowd pleaser that has front-runner status in the supporting acting categories. It’s in.

Inception

Let’s not kid ourselves: the whole reason we have ten Best Picture nominees is because of The Dark Knight. Even if Nolan miraculously gets snubbed, the film is making the cut here.

The Kids Are All Right

The delightful little indie that has waves of support, particularly from the actors. A sure bet that is probably getting in.

The King’s Speech

For the nomination, this is a cake walk. It’s fighting really hard to steal some buzz away from the frontrunner.

The Social Network

The one to beat at the moment, particularly because it’s been winning everything. It’s cozying up to take the top prize.

The Town

It’s been a critical and financial success, but, more importantly, it’s been an industry success. Affleck and the cast are good, and it’s the type of film that supposedly opening the field was supposed to honor.

Toy Story 3

Pixar got in last year, and going in with the best reviewed film of the year will probably pay off. That win that Disney wants is probably out of reach, but the nomination isn’t an issue.

True Grit

People everywhere love this movie. It’s a late bloomer that’s making a significant impact. They were here last year for a film that hardly anyone saw, so I’d imagine getting invited back is a no brainer.

Winter’s Bone

The buzz isn’t what it used to be, but I think there’s still enough industry support to push the film over the edge. I think it will pay off.

Alts.

127 Hours

The buzz for this film is an up and down roller coaster. It started strong, then it dipped, then it rose up again with mentions from the Producers and Writers guild, then it dipped back down when it missed other guild support. With all of that, and the fact that the Slumdog Millionaire mega-success was only two years ago, will probably mean that Danny Boyle will be left on the sidelines this time. Franco’s nomination will probably be the film’s consolation prize. Still, there are a couple of soft spots in the lineup, so it could very well get mentioned.

Blue Valentine

This is a longshot, I know. However, people are just discovering this movie, and the people who love it, really, REALLY love it. That’s the kind of support that helps smaller films get pushed into the spotlight. With Harvey Weinstein behind the project, that means a lot in terms of its broad awards potential. There’s not a general sweep of acclaim, as some are not willing to embrace the film entirely, but it remains a possibility. It’s not likely, but if there’s a surprise in the Best Picture lineup, this might be it.